Do we still underestimate ourselves?
It becomes a big question in front of me.
Here is step by step analysis of our country’s economy in conjunction with US economy.
US Economy grows at 5.7 pct pace, fastest since 2003 - Wall Street
Economy grows for 2nd straight quarter at better-than-expected 5.7 pct rate, best since 2003
Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, On Friday January 29, 2010, 1:29 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) — The economy’s faster-than-expected growth at the end of last year, fueled by companies boosting output to keep stockpiles up, is likely to weaken as consumers keep a lid on spending.
The 5.7 percent annual growth rate in the fourth quarter was the fastest pace since 2003. It marked two straight quarters of growth after four quarters of decline. Growth exceeded expectations mainly because business spending on equipment and software jumped much more than forecast.
Still, economists expect growth to slow this year as companies finish restocking inventories and as government stimulus efforts fade. Many estimate the nation’s gross domestic product will grow 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the current quarter and about 2.5 percent or less for the full year.
That won’t be fast enough to significantly reduce the unemployment rate, now 10 percent. Most analysts expect the rate to keep rising for several months and remain close to 10 percent through the end of the year.
High unemployment and stagnant wage growth will likely keep consumers cautious about spending. Wages and benefits paid to U.S. workers posted a scant gain in the fourth quarter. And for all of last year, workers’ compensation rose by the smallest amount on records going back more than a quarter-century.
The economic recovery could falter if consumers, who account for 70 percent of economic activity, lack the income to ramp up spending.
“That’s why there’s so much hand-wringing right now,” said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist for IHS Global Insight. “Can the economy really sustain this? That’s the big question mark sitting out there.”
With hiring still weak, President Barack Obama has stepped up his focus on job creation. On Friday, he urged Congress to embrace his call for tax incentives to create jobs.
Obama wants to give companies a $5,000 tax credit for each net new worker they hire in 2010. Also, businesses that increase wages or hours for existing workers in 2010 would be reimbursed for the extra Social Security payroll taxes they would pay.
“It’s time to put America back to work,” the president told workers at the Chesapeake Machine Company in Baltimore. But he acknowledged that “while these proposals will create jobs all across America, we’ve got a long way to go to make up for the millions of jobs that we lost in this recession.”
About 60 percent of the fourth quarter’s growth resulted from a sharp slowdown in the reduction of inventories as firms began to rebuild stockpiles depleted by the recession.
Changes to inventories added 3.4 percentage points to the fourth-quarter growth, the Commerce Department said in its report Friday. Excluding inventories, the economy would have grown at a 2.2 percent clip, the government said. That’s an improvement from 1.5 percent in the third quarter.
Consumer spending rose 2 percent, down from a 2.8 percent rise in the third quarter. It added 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth.
A steep increase in exports also helped boost growth last quarter. The shipment of goods overseas rose 18.1 percent, far outpacing a 10.5 percent rise in imports. Net exports added 0.5 percentage point to GDP.
Government spending was actually a slight drag on growth in the fourth quarter: A small increase in federal spending was outweighed by a drop in state and local spending.
Still, federal government spending is likely to pick up and add to growth in the first quarter, Bethune said.
Business spending will likely boost economic growth for several quarters, Bethune said, though not likely enough to make up for sluggish consumer spending. Many companies are upgrading computers, cell phones and machinery as their equipment needs to be replaced just to maintain current levels of production.
In addition, many businesses have healthy balance sheets and don’t need to pay off the large debts that households are struggling with, Bethune added.
For now, the growing economy is benefiting companies up and down the supply chain. Ford Motor Co. this week reported higher fourth-quarter sales and its first annual profit in four years, as it recovers from the devastating downturn the auto industry.
Ford’s “recent success has benefited us,” said Tom Schumann, general manager of EC Kitzel & Sons Inc., a small cutting tool fabricator based in Cleveland, Ohio.
The company, which has 30 employees, bought a new machine tool in December and hired a new worker to run it, the company’s first hire since last spring. Still, many of the company’s suppliers are struggling.
“I’m not totally convinced we’re out of the woods yet,” Schumann said, referring to the economy.
Friday’s report is the first of the government’s three estimates of gross domestic product and is likely to be revised. The government initially estimated third quarter growth was 3.5 percent, which was later revised down to 2.2 percent. The next estimate will be released Feb. 26.
The report provided an upbeat end to an otherwise dismal year: The nation’s economy declined 2.4 percent in 2009, the largest drop since 1946. That’s the first annual decline since 1991.
Source: Yahoo finance
Now let’s start to talk about my own country.
My countrymen are they positive enough to drive country’s economy in correct way?
Do we have potential to prove on paper we are going to become third largest economy worldwide?
Are you using proper guidelines to make our country strong?
Are we really adapting western culture in large extent? I am not an economist.
We Indian fundamentally and strategically quite correct hence I could expect to make it happen within 5 years.
We have enough resources which are cheap and best in quality.
We have good banking system.
Instead of all these reason our stock market still depends on European market.
We have lots of intellectual property on non-conventional energy sources.
Let’s go back to history to understand our strength, our civilization.
The first great Indian civilization
From the start of the fourth millennium BC, the individuality of early village cultures began to be replaced by a more homogeneous style of pottery at a large number of sites throughout the Indus Valley; by the middle of the third millennium, a uniform culture had developed at settlements spread across nearly 1,280,000 square kilometres, including parts of the Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Baluchistan, the Sind and the Makran coast. Two great cities on the Indus, Harappa in the north and Mohenjo Daro in the south, were supported by the agricultural surplus produced by such settlements. Recent archeological research has unearthed further sites, almost as large as the first two and designed on the same plan, at Kalibangan, on the border of India and Pakistan, at Kot Diji east of Mohenjo Daro, at Chanhu Daro further south on the Indus, and at Lothal in Gujarat.
The emergence of the first great Indian civilization, around 2500 BC, is almost as remarkable as its stability for nearly a thousand years. All the cities were built with baked bricks of the same size; the streets were laid out in a grid with an elaborate system of covered drains; and the houses, some with more than one storey, are large. Vast granaries and a citadel built on higher ground with a gigantic adjoining bath at Mohenjo Daro, together with the absence of royal palaces and the large numbers of religious figurines, suggest that it was a theocratic state of priests, merchants and farmers.
By now, farmers had domesticated various animals, including hump-backed (Brahmani) cattle, goats, water buffaloes and fowls. They cultivated wheat, barley, peas and sesamum, and were also probably the first to grow and make clothes from cotton. Excavations at Lothal have uncovered a harbour; merchants were certainly involved in extensive trading by both sea and land, for they imported metals, including gold, silver and copper, and semiprecious stones from the Indian peninsula, Persia, Afghanistan, central Asia and Mesopotamia. While the main export was probably cotton yarn or cloth, they may have exported surplus grain as well. Indus seals found at Ur confirm the continuity of trading links with Sumer between 2300 and 2000 BC.
The sheer quantity of seals discovered in the Indus cities suggests that each merchant or mercantile family had its own. They're usually square, and made of steatite (a kind of soapstone), engraved and then hardened by heating. All bear inscriptions, which remain undeciphered, although nearly 400 different characters have been identified. The emblems beneath the inscriptions - iconographic scenes and animals, such as the bull, buffalo, goat, tiger and elephant - are more enlightening. One of the most notable depicts a horned deity sitting cross-legged in an ithyphallic posture, surrounded by a tiger, an elephant, a rhinoceros, a water buffalo and two deer. He appears on two other seals, and it seems certain that he was a fertility god; indeed, he has been called a "proto-Shiva" because of the resemblance to Pashupati, the Lord of the Beasts, a major representation of the fully developed Hindu god, . Other seals provide evidence that certain trees, especially the peepal, were worshipped, and thus anticipate their sacred status in the Hindu and Buddhist religions.
No monumental sculpture survives, but large numbers of human figurines have been discovered, including a steatite bust of a man thought to be a priest, a striking bronze "dancing girl", brilliantly naturalistic models of animals, and countless terracotta statuettes of a Mother Goddess. This goddess is thought to have been worshipped in nearly every home of the common people, but the crude style of modelling suggests that she was not part of the cult of the priestly elite.
The sudden demise of the Indus civilization in the last quarter of the second millennium BC used to be explained by invasions of barbarian tribes from the northwest; but recent research has established that tectonic upheavals in about 1700 BC caused a series of floods, and these are now considered primarily to blame.
Guys we may find out some answer of my question from SWAMIJI’s thoughts which he had expressed and complied together in “The Future of India”
Did you follow SWAMIJI? Or We couldn’t even understand his thoughts, philosophy beyond of his each statement he commented more than 100 years back.
Did you find out solution for reason which he found out early age of India’s modern civilization?
Do we literate ourselves to understand our key strength and potential?
Lots of questions are still roaming inside my brain but no perfect solution yet.
1. The Future Of India
o Excerpts From Swami Vivekananda famous lecture “The Future Of India”
2. India
o This is the ancient land where wisdom made its home before it went into any other country…
o Here is the same India whose soil has been trodden by the feet of the greatest sages that ever lived.
o Here first sprang up inquiries into the nature of man and into the internal world.
o This is the land from whence, like the tidal waves, spirituality and philosophy have again and again rushed out and deluged the world..
o It is the same land which stands firmer than any rock in the world, with its undying vigor, indestructible life. Its life is of the same nature as the soul, without beginning and without end, immortal; and we are the children of such a country.
3. Problems before India
o The problems in India are more complicated, more momentous, than the problems in any other country.
o The elements which compose the nations of the world are indeed very few, taking race after race, compared to this country. Here have been the Aryan, the Dravidian, the Tartar, the Turk, the Mogul, the European — all the nations of the world, as it were, pouring their blood into this land.
o Of languages the most wonderful conglomeration is here; of manners and customs there is more difference between two Indian races than between the European and the Eastern races.
4. Our Common Ground
o The one common ground that we have is our sacred tradition, our religion. That is the only common ground, and upon that we shall have to build.
o The unity in religion, therefore, is absolutely necessary as the first condition of the future of India.
o We know that our religion has certain common grounds, common to all our sects …what we want is to bring out these lifegiving common principles of our religion, and let every man, woman, and child, throughout the length and breadth of this country, understand them, know them, and try to bring them out in their lives.
o This is the first step; and, therefore, it has to be taken.
5. Do not quarrel within !
o The first plank in the making of a future India, the first step that is to be hewn out of that rock of ages, is this unification of religion.
o All of us have to be taught that we Hindus — dualists, qualified monists, or monists, Shaivas, Vaishnavas, or Pâshupatas — to whatever denomination we may belong, have certain common ideas behind us, and that the time has come when for the well-being of ourselves, for the well-being of our race, we must give up all our little quarrels and differences.
o the more you go on fighting and quarrelling about all trivialities such as "Dravidian" and "Aryan", and the question of Brahmins and non-Brahmins and all that, the further you are off from that accumulation of energy and power which is going to make the future India.
o With the giving up of quarrels all other improvements will come.
6. Lift Up The Masses !
o My idea is first of all to bring out the gems of spirituality that are stored up in our books and in the possession of a few only, hidden, as it were, in monasteries and in forests — to bring them out; to bring the knowledge out of them..
o ..in one word, I want to make them popular. I want to bring out these ideas and let them be the common property of all, of every man in India, whether he knows the Sanskrit language or not.
o the ideas must be taught in the language of the people; at the same time, Sanskrit education must go on along with it,..
o Teach the masses in the vernaculars, give them ideas; they will get information, but something more is necessary; give them culture. Until you give them that, there can be no permanence in the raised condition of the masses.
7. Solution To Caste Problem
o Shame upon them that such wicked and diabolical customs are allowed; their own children are allowed to die of starvation, but as soon as they take up some other religion they are well fed.
o The solution is not by bringing down the higher, but by raising the lower up to the level of the higher.
o What is the plan? The ideal at one end is the Brahmin and the ideal at the other end is the Chandâla, and the whole work is to raise the Chandala up to the Brahmin. Slowly and slowly you find more and more privileges granted to them.
o It is the duty of the Brahmin, therefore, to work for the salvation of the rest of mankind in India. If he does that, and so long as he does that, he is a Brahmin, but he is no Brahmin when he goes about making money.
8. Organize !
o Why is it that organizations are so powerful? Do not say organization is material. Why is it, to take a case in point, that forty millions of Englishmen rule three hundred millions of people here? What is the psychological explanation?
o These forty millions put their wills together and that means infinite power, and you three hundred millions have a will each separate from the other.
o Therefore to make a great future India, the whole secret lies in organization, accumulation of power, co-ordination of wills.
9. Worship the mother !
o For the next fifty years this alone shall be our keynote — this, our great Mother India. Let all other vain gods disappear for the time from our minds. This is the only god that is awake, our own race — "everywhere his hands, everywhere his feet, everywhere his ears, he covers everything."
o The first of all worship is the worship of the Virat — of those all around us. Worship It.
o These we have to worship, instead of being jealous of each other and fighting each other.
One can understand and guess the reason why we are still lugging behind of our milestone.
Anyway we now come to a conclusion that India to be 3rd economy by 2020.
But my question is still kept unanswered. Why don’t we achieve by 2015, it’s not loot late.
(India to be 3rd largest economy by 2020: Pant)
India is poised to become the world's third-largest economy by 2020, three decades before the Goldman Sachs estimate, said K C Pant in Hyderabad on Wednesday.
In his keynote address at the Tenth Partnership Summit organised by the Confederation of Indian Industry, Pant said a recent study by Goldman Sachs on the growth prospects of four leading developing and transition economies -- Brazil, Russia, India and China (collectively termed as BRICs) -- had predicted that India would be the third largest economy in the world by 2050, after China and the United States.
The study forecast that India would grow more or less steadily at 5.5 to 6 per cent per annum and would continue this trajectory even beyond 2050, when all the other major countries would have slowed down to a 3 per cent or less growth rate.
"Though our past performance and the prognoses for the future are a source of pride for us, we do not think that they should be a cause for complacency. India's Tenth Five-Year Plan, which spans 2002 to 2007, aims to make India the fastest-growing economy in the world by the end of this period," he said.
"We believe that the country has the potential to record an average growth rate of 8 per cent per annum during these five years, rising to above 9 per cent in the terminal year," he added.
"Our optimism appears to have been vindicated by the recent performance of the economy. In the second quarter of this year, our GDP (gross domestic product) has increased by 8.4 per cent, and it is expected to grow at over 9 per cent in the next two quarters," he said.
"The most heartening feature of this growth has been the performance of our brick and mortar sectors, which have demonstrated a high degree of vitality that gives us the confidence about the future," Pant said.
He said that India had been one of the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world in the last two decades and the future may be even better than the past.
In the past, economic infrastructure, such as railways, ports, national roads and power were all provided exclusively by the public sector. "In the future, we see these areas being opened up to the private sector to the extent that the private sector displays its willingness, but this varies from sector to sector -- a fact that we need to keep in mind," he noted.
Referring to the financial sector, he said that foreign portfolio investors have recognised the strength and potential of the Indian capital markets and have poured in over $7 billion last year.
"Although India's presence has improved significantly in the international investors' radar screen in recent years, there is still a long way to go before it can be taken for granted. This is especially true for a number of sectors in which India's requirements may be at variance with international investor perceptions," he explained.
Pant said that the Planning Commission had set up a high-level Steering Group on Foreign Direct Investment and its report was presently under active consideration of the Union government.
An empowered committee, consisting of Union ministers and state chief ministers, was also set up to draw up a blueprint for creating an investor-friendly environment and to oversee its implementation.
"This is the first time that a major reforms programme will explicitly reflect the federal nature of our political system and will be guided at the highest political level," he pointed out.
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