Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Stock Pick: Brushman (India) Ltd/ Multibagger Recommendation
Monday, July 6, 2009
Interim Budget 2009-2010 - Summary
The Interim Budget highlights the focus on aam aadmi in the development process. The year 2008-09 has seen substantial increase in outlays spanning across sectors.Continuing the trend, the budget for 2009-10 will have increased plan outlays for key sectors and adequate allocations for the flagship programmes which directly impact aam aadmi.The other major highlights of the passing financial year were a massive debt waiver for farmers and two stimulus packages to counter the negative fallout of the global economic slowdown. In the Interim Budget presented in the Lok Sabha today, the Finance Minister, Shri Pranab Mukherjee, indicated that 'additional plan expenditure of anything from 0.5% to 1.0% of the GDP' will need to be considered in the regular budget, to be presented by the government after the general elections.
The Growth Trend:
The Finance Minister also highlighted that the economy has grown at a healthy rate in the recent yeaRs The Gross Domestic Product has increased by 7.5%, 9.5%, 9.7% and 9% in the first four years from fiscal year 2004-05 to 2007-08 recording a sustained growth of over 9% for three consecutive years for the first time. With per capita income growing at 7.4 percent per annum, this represented the fastest ever improvement in living standards over a four-year period. The growth drivers for the period were agriculture, services, manufacturing along with trade and construction. The fiscal deficit has come down from 4.5% in 2003-04 to 2.7% in 2007-08 and revenue deficit from 3.6% to 1.1% in 2007-08. He further stated that the annual growth rate of agriculture rose to 3.7% during 2003-04 to 2007-08. Foodgrain production recorded an increase of 10 million tonnes each year during this period and touched an all time high of 230 million tonnes in 2007-08. The manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 9.5% per annum in the period 2004-05 to 2007-08, and exports grew at an annual average growth rate of 26.4% in US dollar terms during this period.Despite the global financial crisis, which began in 2007 impacting most emerging market economies, 7.1% rate of GDP growth in the current year makes India the second fastest growing economy in the world.
Flagship Programmes:
Adequate funds have been ensured for the flagship programmes. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme gets Rs 30,100 crore for the year 2009-10. This Scheme generated 138.76 crore person days of employment covering 3.51 crore households in 2008-09.An allocation of Rs 13,100 crore has been provided for b. This Scheme has made significant contribution in providing access to and infrastructure for elementary education.Allocation for the national programme of Mid-day Meals in schools has been kept at Rs 8,000 crore in 2009-10. This is the world's largest school feeding programme and has contributed to enhancement of school participation, reduction in class room hunger, and fostering of social and gender parity.The Integrated Child Development Scheme gets an allocation of Rs 6,705 crore. This Scheme was expanded twice in the last five years to cover the hitherto uncovered habitations across the country.Rs 11,842 crore have been proposed for the Jawaharlal Nehru National urban Renewal Mission. Under this Mission, 386 projects amounting to Rs 39,000 crore have been sanctioned at the end of 2008.Rajiv Gandhi Rural Drinking Water Mission is to receive Rs 7,400 crore for supplying safe drinking water to uncovered habitations and slipped back habitations.Rs 1,200 crore are being provided for the Total Rural Sanitation Programme. Rs 12,070 crore are being allocated to the National Rural Health Mission.Bharat Nirman, the time-bound plan for building rural infrastructure receives Rs 40,900 crore. This package has six components – rural roads, telephony, irrigation, drinking water supply, housing and electrification.
Agriculture:
The Finance Minister highlighted the focused attention given by the Government to the farming sector. The highlights include 300% rise in Plan allocation for agriculture in the last five years and launch of Rs 25,000 crore Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana to increase farm growth to four% per year during the XI Plan.Credit disbursement to the farm sector has gone up from Rs 87 thousand crore in 2003-04 to about Rs 2.5 lakh crore in 2007-08 marking a three fold increase. Shri Mukherjee announced that the Government will continue to provide interest subvention in 2009-10 to ensure that farmers get short term crop loans upto Rs 3 lakh at 7% per annum.The Government announced the Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme for farmers in the last budget and implemented it by June 30, 2008 as scheduled. The Scheme has been able to restore institutional credit to indebted farmeRs As per early reports, the total debt waiver and debt relief so far, amounts to Rs 65 thousand three hundred crore covering 3.6 crore farmers.Remunerative prices have been given to farmers for their crops. Since 2003-04, Minimum Support Price (MSP) for the common variety of paddy was increased from Rs 550 to Rs 900 per quintal for the crop year 2008-09. In case of wheat the increase was from Rs 630 in 2003-04 to Rs 1,080 per quintal for the year 2009.
Rural Development:
A number of programmes have been designed to help improve the living conditions of rural population. The corpus of the Rural Infrastructure Development Fund has increased from Rs 5,500 crore in 2003-04 to Rs 14 thousand crore for the year 2008-09 ensuring greater availability of funds for developing rural infrastructure.Under the Indira Awaas Yojana, 60.12 lakh houses have already been constructed by the end of 2008 as against the target of building 60 lakh houses by March 2009.The Government proposes to substantially expand the Panchayat Empowerment and Accountability Scheme. The Project Arrow, the postal scheme to provide new technology – enabled services to the common man, will also receive full Government support.
Education:
The Finance Minister has called 2008-09 as a 'momentous year for secondary education' as several major initiatives including a new Centrally Sponsored Scheme to universalize education at secondary stage were launched during the year.Outlay on higher education has been increased 900% in the XI Five Year Plan. An ordinance to open 15 Central Universities has been promulgated, 6 new IITs have started functioning, two more IITs are expected to commence their academic sessions in 2009-10, five Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research have become functional, teaching is expected to commence in four out of six new IIMs and two new schools of Planning and Architecture have started functioning.Since 2004-05 nearly 500 ITIs have been upgraded into centres of excellence and a National Skill Development Corporation has been created to stimulate and coordinate private sector participation in skill development.
Social Sector:
Many Schemes have been initiated for women and weak and downtrodden people of the society. A new Ministry of Minority Affairs has been set up and a 15-point programme has been announced for the welfare of the minorities.The Scheduled Tribes and other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act has helped in getting to Scheduled Tribes and other traditional forest dwellers legal rights on forest lands.The authorized capital of the National Safai Karmachari Finance and Development Corporation has been increased. The Finance Minister announced that the authorized capital of the Rashtriya Mahila Kosh will also be strengthened.The Aam Aadmi Bima Yojana has provided death and disability cover to over 60 lakh rural landless. A Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana for BPL families has also been started. As on January 15 this year, 22 States and UTs have initiated the process to implement the Scheme.The Finance Minister announced that two new schemes, Indira Gandhi National Widow Pension Scheme and Indira Gandhi National Disability Pension Scheme are being launched in the current year to provide pension to widows and severely disabled persons, respectively. He also proposed to give priority to young widows in admissions to ITIs and to provide stipend and bear training cost.
Financial Sector and Tax Reforms:
The Finance Minister informed that the asset quality of Public Sector Banks has improved and non performing assets have declined considerably from 2004 to 2008. He also enumerated the steps taken to promote a safe, transparent and efficient share market and to protect market integrity. He further informed that the Companies Bill 2008 has been introduced in parliament to make the Companies Act a compact law adopted to internationally accepted best practices.The Government has rationalized income tax rates and steadily reduced customs duty rates. Rates of Union Excise Duties and Service Tax have also been rationalized. Tax administration is being modernized through extensive use of information technology. 109 marine vessels are being acquired form the Customs Department to prevent movement of contraband goods across the country's sea borders.
Budget Provisions:
The Budget for 2009-10 will have total expenditure of Rs 9,53,231 crore, comprising Rs 2,85,149 crore under Plan and Rs 6,68,082 crore under non-Plan. The Gross Budgetary Support for the Plan is 17.16% higher than that in 2008-09.To ensure continuity in financing of rural infrastructure projects, RIDF-XV is being proposed with a corpus of Rs 14,000 crore. The separate window for rural roads with a corpus of Rs 4,000 crore will continue.To counter the negative impact on exports due to the global financial crisis, the interest subvention of 2% on pre and post shipment credit for certain employment oriented sectors is proposed to be extended.It is proposed to recapitalise the public sector banks over next two years to enable them to maintain Capital to Risk Weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) of 12% and to ensure that credit growth continues to sustain economic growth.The allocation for Defence is being increased to Rs 1,14,703 crore. This will include Rs 54,824 crore for capital expenditure.A provision of Rs 95,579 crore for major subsidies including food, fertilizer and petroleum has been made in the Budget.Gross Tax Revenue receipts at the existing rates of taxation are estimated at Rs 6,71293 crore and Centre's net tax revenue at Rs 5,00,096 crore. With revenue expenditure estimated at Rs 8,48,085 crore, the revenue deficit amounts to 4.0% of GDP. Fiscal Deficit is estimated at Rs 3,32,835 crore which is 5.5% of GDP. This would be lower than in 2008-09, but higher than would be appropriate under normal circumstances. The Minister explained: 'However, conditions in the year ahead are not likely to be normal and, therefore, the high fiscal deficit is inevitable. We will return to FRBM targets once the economy is restored to its recent trend growth path.'
Source: Equity bull
Monday, June 29, 2009
Leaving India was biggest challenge - Mittal
He admitted that ArcelorMittal did not anticipate a crisis of this magnitude, and said that the company has acknowledged the slowdown and was the first one to resort to cost-cutting measures. Mittal, 58, born in Sadulpur, Rajasthan, parted ways with his father and brother and took over the international affairs of the family business and left for Indonesia than three decades ago.He founded the Mittal Steel company in 1976. He expressed his disappointment over delays in securing regulatory approvals for his Rs. 1 lakh crore steel project in India. "We are disappointed with this. We are still awaiting some of the approvals, land approvals, environment approvals, and mining license; clearly this has delayed the progress by two years."
Aspiring engineers scared to opt for IT courses
The change in career can be linked with big IT companies like Wipro, Infosys and TCS deciding to cut down the number of recruitment due to recession. Big companies are also seeking to cut down on existing staff to adapt to economic slowdown. In such situation students are not that ready to take risk by entering the IT field. "In times of recession, nobody is daring to opt for IT. There are more job opportunities in mechanical. Lot of students that I know prefer to go into electronics and communication and mechanical engineering," an aspiring engineering student Bhavish Kuttapa told Economic Times.Many students are interested in opting for telecommunication engineering as there are more jobs available in that field. It is expected from students to opt for recession-proof careers. "Something very similar happened few years ago when IT was doing better than other sectors. With government spending big on infrastructure, energy and telecom, there are more jobs available for mechanical, civil and electronic engineers," said GC Jayaprakash, principal consultant at executive search firm Stanton Chase International to economic times. (siliconindia news bureau,Bangalore)
Multibagger Stock: Visu International
Visu International Ltd., was started in 1983, by Mr. C.C.Reddy, an NRI from USA, Founder and Chairman, built the huge organization, that it is today. From a humble beginning, today he succeeded in the uphill task of dispelling all the myths usually associated with ' study abroad' and have brought the concept of overseas education to the doorstep of every student, by making it affordable and devoid of cumbersome procedures.
Visu International Ltd. has more than 73 offices all over the world, placing more than 75000 students in Universities abroad. Our reach extends to five continents and Universities in most Countries like the US, UK, Canada, Ireland, Singapore, Malaysia, Nepal, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, France and Spain.
It offers the following services:
Councelling
Coaching for TOEFEL, GRE, GMAT, SAT in India .About 50000 students per year are getting coaching in various centres within India.
Application Processing for admission abroad
e- application status
Visa guidance
Post Visa services
Bank Loan guidance
Travel Assistance
This year is the Silver Anniversary Year of Visu International and Management is hopeful of surpassing Rs. 100 crore turnovers with a significant increase in the bottom line.
Future Prospects:
Project today reported that Conglome Industries Pvt Ltd, a group company of Visu International Ltd, is planning to expand it presence in Africa, Myanmar and Vietnam.As per report, the company will carry out its expansion plan in the phased manner. In the first phase, Conglome intends to invest INR 500 crore in the various sectors in Africa, Myanmar and Vietnam. As per report, they have identified 11 sectors in agriculture, education, mini hydro power generation and distribution, roads, housing, bore wells, manufacturing of ethanol and alcoholic & non alcoholic beverages to make the investment. The funds for the expansion will be raised from equity, banks and partners.Apart from this, Conglome is also in the process of acquiring 8 companies in Africa at the investment cost of INR 100 crore. Out of which INR 25 crore will be equity and the rest will be raised from foreign funding.
About the Management:
Mr.C.C.Reddy,ChairmanMr.C.C.Reddy started his practice as an Attorney in the year 1960. He was a Member of the Communist Party of India and a State Leader in the Trade Union Movement. Mr.Reddy was exposed to International Law and in late 60s, he represented India in various International Law Conferences held in Moscow, Berlin and Helsinki under the leadership of the Legendary Mr.V.K. Krishna Menon.
In 1973, he moved to the United States of America as an Immigrant and there he headed various International business corporations as Chief Executive. He had exclusive trade relations with both East and West European countries. During this period, he was a Member of the U.S. Technology Transfer society, U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Australian Chamber of Commerce. He also was a Special Invitee to the African National Congress and he addressed the ANC in Johannesburg, South Africa.
In 1983 he established Visu Consultants Limited in India which is today known as Visu International Limited. Visu International Limited is the Flagship Company of the Visu Group of Companies with its offices in 20 countries and has 2000 employees across the Globe. Visu Group deals in Education, Software, Manufacturing in 8 countries in Africa, Trading from Hong Kong and China with Retail Operations in India and Africa.
Mr.Reddy is a Member of the Osmania University Academic Senate. While in U.S.A he has been a keen observer of the U.S. political system and believes that some of the electoral practices could apply to Indian political system.
In the recent elections, he has been named as the Vice Chairman of the A.P. Congress Committee Campaign Committee. Mr.Reddy conceived, designed and telecast the campaign material. The efficacy of the campaign materials resulted in a land-slide victory for the Congress Party. Mr.Reddy has been appointed as Advisor to the Government of A.P. on Foreign Investments and NRI affairs. In fulfilling this responsibility and in order to benefit the farming community of A.P. in particular, Mr.Reddy is in the process of finalizing a lucrative Agricultural Development Scheme in African Countries where the A.P.Farmers would be relocated for using their skills and making their personal fortunes as other expatriates have done for centuries in these countries. Mr.Reddy is also helping in sourcing foreign investments from foreign countries for developmental projects in A.P.
Mr.Reddy has also entered into production of Feature Films and TV serials. One Telugu feature film is ready for release and production for two more films is going to start very soon. Mr.Reddy has plans to regularly produce feature films under the banner of Visu Films International.
At present CMP of INR 5.55, the stock looks very attractive and it will give a 200-350% return in time duration of 1-2 years.
Positive Points for this stock for Up moving:
1) Company doing very good and available very cheep at INR 5.55/-
2) Book Value 25/-; Company Assets 79 Crores.
3) Company planning to invest 500 Crores various sectors.
4) Company Having Good Corporate house in Hyderabad Business center and good Land Bank.
5) Company releasing Telugu Movie Soon. So Mumbai operators are accumulating with a target of INR 50/-
6) Company Doing Education Business; expecting good news from company.
7) Company planning to declare more future plans.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
How to analyse an IPO
Since the bulky document may appear a tad intimidating to the new investor, here are a few guidelines on how to pick relevant information, and what to base your investment decision on.
Any issue prospectus will be divided into seven sections — risk factors, an introduction to and detailed information about the company, financial information, details on the issue, legal and other regulatory information. Of these, the company background and business model, the industry it operates in, purpose of the issue, financial performance and risk factors are areas you should concentrate on.
The year 2008 was one of drought as far as Initial Public Offers (IPO) goes. But with a revival of sorts in the markets, quite a few of these are lined up, with one — that of Mahindra Holiday and Resorts — already through. Investing in an IPO is a shade trickier than an existing company since not much information about it — financial or otherwise — will be publicly available. This is where, as a rule, the prospectus comes in as the best possible source of comprehensive information on the company.
Since the bulky document may appear a tad intimidating to the new investor, here are a few guidelines on how to pick relevant information, and what to base your investment decision on.
Any issue prospectus will be divided into seven sections — risk factors, an introduction to and detailed information about the company, financial information, details on the issue, legal and other regulatory information. Of these, the company background and business model, the industry it operates in, purpose of the issue, financial performance and risk factors are areas you should concentrate on.
Business :
The section ‘About the Company’ gives a detailed description of the nature of the company and its business models; understand how and where the company accrues revenue, and if it is sustainable.
This includes going back to the history of the company, since it explains how the company has developed over the years, acquisitions made, milestones crossed, subsidiary activity, all of which are indicators of the consistency of performance and sustainability.
If possible, compare revenue models with those of existing peer companies to identify if, and where, the company has an advantage. If any competitor is already listed, use it as a comparison for performance, valuations, financials, and strategies.
Also included in the business section is an overview of the industry. Scrutinise it thoroughly to get a grip on the future of the industry and the company’s own prospects within it. As far as financials go, analyse these as you would for any other company.
Strengths:
The company will list its ‘strengths’ — what it considers as an edge over peers — again in the business section. Give these a once-over, paying attention to the details only if the said strength stands out — for example, Gitanjali Gems has a diamond sourcing agreement with Diamond Trading Corp, a key strength since the company is ensured of access to good quality rough diamonds which most peers do not enjoy. Sizeable market share (check source of data here), backward integration, and so on, are other factors favouring the company.
Take the strengths with a pinch of salt, since companies sometimes tend to paint a brighter picture than what they actually are. Conclude yourself if the point given in reality works in the company’s favour significantly.
Risks :
Risks detailed are wide-ranging, from an economic scenario to company-specific, which must be noted to understand potential downside to your investment. Risks are explained at the start of the prospectus.
Some risks given are general in nature and can be ignored, such as political instability, natural calamities, competition from peers and such, which are usually applicable to all companies, regardless of industry.
Legal issues that have a significant bearing on the functioning of the company, are also given here — for example, Mahindra Holidays has a resort in Munnar, where the land is under legal proceedings since it was said to be agricultural.
Now if the case goes against Mahindra, it will mean closure of a flagship resort and loss of revenue from it.
Understanding such material legal proceedings allows you to skip most of the section on legal issues that appears later in the prospectus. For example, legal issues regarding taxes, labour and such need not be combed through.
Objects:
The purpose of the issue is explained in depth, and companies are required to explain the utilisation of funds raised in subsequent annual reports.
Proceeds from the issue can go towards any number of purposes, from repayment of debt to working capital, from capacity expansion to company acquisitions besides covering issue expenses. Fund utilisation should, as far as possible, contribute to revenue generation and earnings expansion.
For example, companies may raise funds to either ramp up production capacity which may lead to increased sales, or to pay back high-cost debt resulting in lower interest costs and more leveraging capability; or for acquisitions that may add to revenues. However, the time taken to accomplish the stated objectives needs to be gauged.
Check the amount of funds set aside for issue expenses, which include advertising and promotion, printing of the prospectus and so on. Check also whether the proceeds of the IPO go entirely to the company; some IPOs involve a stake sale by the promoters in which case funds raised would not accrue to the company.
Other sections you can glance through are the regulations and policies the company is subject to, the management team and the relevant experience they hold and the instructions to bidders in the section detailing the issue — just to make sure you don’t inadvertently mess up your application.
SBI cuts car loan rates
To increase its credit offtake and market share, State Bank of India on Saturday reduced the interest rate on car loans to 8 per cent for the first year. For the second and third years, the bank will charge 10 per cent, and from the fourth year it will charge the then prevailing rate.
SBI’s car loan scheme is available for new cars and also for balance transfers, that is, those who have borrowed from other banks can transfer their loans to SBI at lower rates. “We want to increase our auto loan portfolio and the penetration of auto loans. We have been able to find business logic, while others have not been able to,” said a senior bank official.
Starting from Monday, the bank’s card rates for car loans will range between 11 and 11.5 per cent, which is 25-75 basis points below the BPLR of 11.75 per cent. In February, the bank had launched a car loan scheme that offered funding at 10 per cent for a year. The scheme was on till May and was extended till September.
Under the car loan scheme, the bank’s disbursement touched around Rs 300 crore a month and with the further reduction in interest rates it may go up some more, said a senior official from the bank.
The bank’s auto loan portfolio is currently at over Rs 9,000 crore and it is now the largest financier of new cars.
Even under its special scheme of home loans at 8 per cent fixed for a year, the bank has been able to lure a significant number of customers away from other banks. Till mid-March, the bank had sanctioned Rs 1,350 crore under the special home loan scheme.
The bank cut its BPLR by 50 basis points, with effect from June 29